Hurricane season is upon us again in the USA. Most hurricanes hit the USA between June 1st and November 30th. In the past the National Hurricane Center (NHC) provided a 5 day warning for tracking potential hurricanes. Typically, this warning is provided to the public and the news media. This season a 7-day advanced hurricane warning will be provided. The additional two days will provide more time for sites to prepare for the potential storm/hurricane. Internally the NHC has been doing this since 2018 but now they will be releasing the hurricane warning forecast 7 days in advance. Since May 15th, the NHC has issued its daily tropical weather outlooks at 2 a.m., 8 a.m. 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.
The NHC designates the start of a disturbance as a tropical cyclone once it gains a closed center of circulation. The track of a tropical cyclone can be one of three disturbances:
- Hurricane
- Tropical Storm
- Depression
The NHC is working on a 7-day Hurricane Cone, but it is several years away. Currently the cone is only a 5-day forecast but has become more exact in the past 20 years.
The problem with the cone is that it provides a false sense of security as storm surge and high winds can occur far outside the cone. The cone only provides where the center of the storm is located. History has shown that approximately 33% of the time the center of the storm will travel outside the cone completely.
Each year Colorado State University predicts the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Below are the 2023 predictions:
Below is the past 10 year history of Named Storms, Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes:
Risk Logic can help in your hurricane preparedness plan. We can customize a detailed plan based on your facility. A general guideline to get started is provided in our October 2022 article.